Forecasting and scenario modeling

Cutting CO2 emissions from road vehicles is essential and necessary to reduce long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in France. The transport sector is still responsible for more than 30% of national emissions, making it the sector with the highest level of emissions. The development of new low-carbon powertrains may also result in an improvement in air quality and help reduce our reliance on imported fossil fuels.

In its “sustainable development” scenario, the International Energy Agency (IEA) considers energy efficiency to be the primary lever for reducing CO2 emissions (see diagram). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also considers energy efficiency as a key element of the ecological transition. (...) But this strategy could prove to be flawed in that it disregards a phenomenon that has long been at work to counteract the benefits of energy efficiency: the “rebound effect”.

Tackling climate change necessarily involves reducing greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities, primarily carbon dioxide and methane. The problem is global and the actions required must be implemented within the framework of a systemic approach, with scale effects that are difficult to fully understand. Nevertheless, the Paris Agreement reflects the determination of nations to correct the current trajectory while respecting the legitimate aspirations of emerging countries to raise their living standards.

Low-carbon strategies encourage the use of renewable energy sources based, among others, on biomass. The objective of achieving carbon neutrality is expressed via a perfect balance...

Selected as part of the European ERANET-Electromobility+ program a and coordinated by IFPEN, the SCelecTRA (1) project was aimed at assessing the potential and conditions for the development of