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Arash Farnoosh
            Arash Farnoosh

Economic Analysis of Energy Systems : 

a large-scale regional approach
(HDR 2021)


As the title suggests, my research focuses on the economic analysis of large-scale systems, i.e. targets such as the energy systems of regions, countries, territories and major cities or vast metropolitan areas. In terms of the economic analysis, it extends beyond pure, autonomous economic elements to include issues related to geopolitical, technical and environmental aspects, as well as energy policies, obviously. The mathematical modeling and economic analysis process deployed throughout my research career therefore integrates all these considerations.

Thus, depending on the nature of the uncertainties existing in the systems studied, linear programming [1] and dynamic programming and optimization [2] methods were selected. However, as this research progressed towards more competitive and eco-friendly systems (due to the greater use of renewable energies), but also more unpredictable ones, the methods used had to factor in an increasing number of uncertainties. It is primarily for this reason that these methods were combined with more innovative approaches such, as distributionally robust optimization1 and statistical learning (i.e. neural networks). This approach resulted in new models (Figure 1) that were deployed to analyze the energy systems of rapidly developing economies such as India and China [3].
 

Figure 1– Structure of the techno-economic energy system model

 

The long-term planning and sustainable expansion of large-scale energy systems in highly unpredictable contexts present significant challenges due to the presence of various types of uncertainties. The application of these models improves the robustness of our analysis to help overcome this issue. 

1 Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) assumes that the probability distribution governing uncertain parameters is unknown but belongs to an ambiguous set of probability distributions


References :

  1. Farnoosh A., Percebois J. and Lantz F., 2014, Electricity generation analyzes in an oil-exporting country: Transition to non-fossil fuel-based power units in Saudi Arabia, ENERGY, Elsevier, 69, pp. 299–308. 
    >> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2014.03.017
       
  2. Farnoosh A., Yue Zhang et al., 2018, GIS-Based Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization of Charging Station for Electric Vehicles – Taking a District in Beijing as an Example, ENERGY, Elsevier, 169, pp. 844–853. 
    >> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.062
          
  3. Farnoosh A. and Y. Zhang, 2019, Analyzing the Dynamic Impact of Electricity Futures on Revenue and Risk of Renewable Energy in China, Energy Policy, Elsevier, 132, pp. 678–690.
    >> https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.06.011
        
       

To know more : Arash Farnoosh

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